Extended Maturities - Mitigating Inflation Risk

Components Performance/Risk
Period Return
5.6%
Return Rank
Subpar
Risk Exposure
Low Risk

Quantitative easing (QE) is a monetary policy by which the Federal Reserve buys new Treasury issues which are not 'cleared' -taken up - by bond investors

The resulting increase in money supply has been enormous since 2009 - amounting to $16 trillion as of May '22 and representing 75% of 2021 full year GDP ($21 trillion)

 

With the avowed purpose of encouraging lending and investment to stimulate the economy, this abundance of liquidities has been a key factor in rising stock markets and real estate 

After an extended time lag, the easing - liquidities "printed" in the sense that the purchasing power is made available without any material  counterparty - have been feeding into price increases raising inflationary expectations to 8% as of May '22

The time lag  which dampened inflation in the recent past has been related to the powerful global supply chain providing consumer access to near infinite volumes of produce manufactured by cheap labor, originating in China and elsewhere

Operating in reverse with the disruptions of the supply chain, inflationary trends are triggered by the mutually enforcing pressures of lowered volumes of manufactured goods and increased liquidities on hand

 

With overlapping factors feeding into price structures - supply disruptions, post-COVID increased demand, squeezed energy and commodity markets,  and vast pools of available liquidity - the markets are uncertain about the duration of this inflationay bout - from deeply ingrained to a temporary surge

Short-term interest rate increases in response to inflationary pressure support Short-Dated TIPs (inflation protected) but, over the longest term, high volatility reflects a great degree of uncertainty in PIMCO's 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index ETF 

 

Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF   is the benchmark, posted for comparison purposes with the broad-based inflation protected bonds of the theme. VGIT is not inflation-protected and focused on 3-to-7 years bond maturities, without bias towards either end of the spectrum

Broad-Based Inflation Linked ETFs with bond maturities stretching from 5 years to 10 years on average will be evaluated in parallel with the companion theme Short-Dated Inflation Linked

Theme Components
Name
Ticker
Category
SubCategory
Cur. Price
Performance
Momentum
Risk Rank
Risk Contrib
 
Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF™ SCHP TreasuriesInflation protected26.077.1% Neutral Below Average
PIMCO 1-5 Year U.S. TIPS Index ETF STPZ TreasuriesInflation protected52.843.9% Neutral Low Risk
FlexShares iBoxx® 5-Year Target Duration TIPS Index Fund TDTF TreasuriesInflation protected23.427.8% Neutral Below Average
FlexShares iBoxx® 3-Year Target Duration TIPS Index Fund TDTT TreasuriesInflation protected23.678.2% Neutral Low Risk
iShares TIPS Bond ETF TIP TreasuriesInflation protected107.496.9% Neutral Average Risk
PIMCO Broad US TIPS Index ETF TIPZ TreasuriesInflation protected51.328.3% Neutral Average Risk
SPDR® Bloomberg 1-10 Year TIPS ETF TIPX TreasuriesInflation protected18.688.1% Neutral Below Average
SPDR® Portfolio TIPS ETF SPIP TreasuriesInflation protected25.207.9% Neutral Average Risk
Goldman Sachs Access Inflation Protected USD Bond ETF GTIP TreasuriesInflation protected47.916.7% Neutral Below Average
Dimensional Inflation-Protected Securities ETF DFIP TreasuriesInflation protected40.443.7% Neutral Average Risk
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