Defense - Rewriting Rules of Engagement

by Pininvest Analysis
Defense - Rewriting Rules of Engagement
Brandon Morgan / Unsplash

Rules of engagement (ROE) delineate the circumstances and limits under which the military forces will initiate or continue combat with the enemy

Framing military operations, engagement must account for governmental policy, diplomatic efforts and legislation 

Source Naval War College - Cpt. J.Ashley Roach

Complexity of these interactions is not a recipe for conduct under pressure, and engagement could easily be impaired by a lack of adequate guidance in contingencies

However, the true game-changers of engagement are new social, technological and political realities, upending the frame of engagement itself

Lines between battlefield confrontations and support of proxy fights with purported enemies have been blurred throughout the Cold War

But the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the first confident validation of multi-dimensional warfare in the 21st Century

 

Social media rules...

The considerable importance of social media in chronicling the war may be measured by the saturation of networks, from Twitter to TikTok, shifting political perceptions and the course of the war itself

Spectacular in building awareness from London to Tokyo by way of San Francisco, no-name influencers are no less dominant in Russia, in the fear struck at the heart of the regime, in frantic attempts to block Facebook, Google, Twitter or Instagram...

 

And this is still only part of the story...

Engagement on the Ukrainian battlefields is a heady mix of courage in the line of fire, of air-delivered military hardware and of highly sophisticated communication networks weaving 'eyes in the sky' with operations on the ground

Economic pressure, literally 'a continuation of military conflict by other means', has become integral part of the war effort, raising difficult questions about belligerence and - for now improbable - exit points of sanctions

Overarching perceptions worldwide, leading the Russian invasion astray, is the reputational battle, painting virtue and villains in black-and-white parody, bound to complicate a peaceful settlement even further


As the C-17 military cargo planes rumble on Polish Rzeszow airport, landing, unloading and taking off again, day and night, any observer would stand back in awe

Sce US Air Force - C-17 Globemaster III

The sheer magnitude of the logistics - weapon deliveries worth $350 million followed in close order by shipments for another $800 million (and more on the way?) - is a stark reminder of the dominance of the American industrial complex put in high gear

...nor do the Russian invaders need to be reminded of the critical logistical support of the U.S. during the Great Patriotic War (1941-1945) fought against the nazi regime or...for that matter, of their struggle in Afghanistan against the Mujahedeens, equipped with $20 billion (in today's dollars) worth of U.S. hardware over the course of the war (1979-1989)

 

A tenuous balance in confronting Russia 

Indispensable as the American logistics may be in supporting the valiant Ukrainian defense, the rules of engagement on the 21st Century battlefield are more subtle, and more decisive in explaining the disarray of the Russian war effort

Steady supplies by the U.S. of anti-aircraft Stingers (800 additional weapons to date), antitank Javelins (9 000) and explosive Switchblade drones (100) are all part of a focus on defensive equipment "easy-to-carry and easy-to-use" by small teams

Such "hands-off" delivery of hardware may stick to international understanding between third parties to a military conflict...to a degree

To deploy their lethal power, advanced weapon systems are intricate part of an operational chain of command - from intelligence to analysis and prioritizing of data streams to deployment in the field

Coordination of these three tenets is the challenge of modern warfare - operating in entirely different dimensions, high in the sky for intelligence as well as close to the field, and involving quite distinct specialists from locations in - and out of - the country

It requires great trust between operators, communication technology of the highest quality and - foremost - speed, in a time frame of no more than 15 minutes from observation of the enemy to strike 

'Soft' assistance in communication networks, of paramount importance, can only be denied for a time and will hardly be ignored by the Russian opponent

 

Tactics today but how about the strategy ?

Tactically, the military engagement has been flawless - stalling Russian advance, raising the cost in lives and in heavy equipment, and sapping moral - but relying critically on the bravery of Ukrainian troops, the smaller of the two contestant armies

 

With probably much to crow about, given the complexity of military coordination kept at arms' length, the U.S. still walks a fine line between assistance in weapon deliveries, allowed under international law, and provocation, in Mr. Putin's perception

All the more reason to keep a low profile, a pre-condition to find a way out...

 

Maligning the opponent as war criminal and calling for regime change speaks from the heart, on the spur of the moment

Already imprudent by themselves, such assertions may well betray a sense of overblown American confidence, turning tactics into a strategic success

This is not a likely outcome...Ukraine is not Afghanistan and gambling with human life endured on a stalled battle scene is unconscionable

 

Strategically, the quagmire into which Russia has been drawn could turn out to be an illusion

Brute military force, always at Russian disposal, and already unleashed by the invaders int the East of the country, could beat the most determined defenders into submission

 

Options for a peaceful settlement are limited, if they exist at all, with Russia's annexation in the East, and they will be for Ukrainian people to decide

Western supporters of Ukraine have their own dire options to confront in devising future relationships with Russia

Russia's military adventure has put in play its most valuable card, energy deliveries to Europe, as we hope to discuss shortly in 'a Hatchet Job'