The Yuan also rises
Reflecting global reach, credibility of national governance and economic dominance, currency convertibility can be facilitated in practice but cannot be summoned by diktat; trust will be earned in the long haul
Pininvest Analysis
U.S. dollar - Indispensable and Challenged
Debt issuance in U.S. dollars is privilege but the reserve currency status is a straight jacket with flaws - Expectations run high, everyone wants a piece while American control gets harder, diluting responsability and credibility
China - a 21st Century Industrial Revolution
Self-sufficiency in the production of intermediate goods and machinery is powered by automation, generating a structural mismatch between growing exports of all types and weakened imports of advanced manufactured products
Building EVs with picks and shovels
Factory equipment manufacturers are on a roll as automakers rush the installation of EV (electrical vehicles) production lines
ASML and the semiconductor ecosystem
The year on year share price performance (topping 100%) is compelling but investors anticipate very strong earnings, going forward, to bring PE in line with the high flyers of the semiconductor supply chain
ASML the horse and the barn
The disruptive potential of AI-based technologies has raised American concern about China's 'military-civil fusion' strategy and the forceful geopolitical pressure by U.S. Administrations on foreign allies has been successful, up to a point...
Japan - Supply chains
Inspired by the Meiji Restoration, mutually supportive relationships anchored Japanese industrial firms on strong foundations, in Japan and globally, making partnerships on Western markets attractive and mutually beneficial
Japan - Financial Challenges
Japanese debt seems overwhelming, qualifying unhappily as sole defining factor of the country's outlook but commanding economic strengths, with deeply rooted supply chains, will shift investor perceptions over time
A Golden Age - Make the Dutch Provinces Great !
With victory in the Revolt against Spain in 1648, the challenge had evaporated and the Dutch Republic needed to find a fresh purpose in itself, above and beyond its outstanding economic success
A Golden Age - Holland's Power by the Numbers
The Seventeenth Century - or at least its first 75 years - was called 'Golden' in the Northern Netherlands not just as symbol of material abundance but by virtue of the social cohesion the small Republic achieved
Germany - Global Trade Storm
EU trade policies are credible when competing in unison on global markets, but ambivalent efforts by Germany (and others) to keep China on-side pin Europe down. Atrophy beckons...
Germany - Misplaced Trust
Germany is one of the strongest exporters worldwide and readily accessible energy sources are indispensable to the country's industrial success. A close partnership with Russian energy providers has turned into unwarranted dependence - Trust betrayed
America - Strolling through the XXth Century
In vintage photography, quiet statements of forbearance, and trust in equal opportunity, regrouping in times of crisis and communing in shared beliefs of belonging speak loud and clear
America - Tariffs and Voices of Common Sense
With the CEO of Detroit Axle, the American Dream finds a voice, a voice of experience and hard work, to speak out about tariff policies, impacting competitiveness and distorting markets, with costs borne ultimately by the U.S. economy
Russia - Demographics and Manifest Destiny
War artillery will fall silent on the Eastern Front but Europe has still to take responsibility about what comes next - Dwindling demographics and a powerful weapon industry may tempt Russia to a last hurrah sooner rather than later
Russia - Siberian Roulette
Originally published in March 2020, this updated note on Siberia's pivotal position in the Eurasian landmass has gained strong relevance in the race for natural resources amidst powerplays between Russia, China and Europe, as the war in Ukraine drags on
New NATO - Who holds the cards ?
European national interests are exposed to unstable arbitrage, and options are volatile - The best of times to boldly stamp NATO's expectations held for the future
NATO - In a crucible
Military preparation for war is indispensable but fortuitous and dependent on the human dimension. In questioning current doctrine, reform will fuse novel weapon systems and data management solutions with disciplined strategy - a challenge for the ages
Globalization, China and Trade Imbalance
The Chinese trade surplus in manufacturing goods is, at $2 trillion, unfathomably large....and growing fast....a death knell of globalization as we knew it, which might finally stir the international order into action ...
Tariffs - the U.S. and the World
Global trade has been upended by the Trump tariff policies and there is no turning back. Each country's political standing will weigh on its economic outcome but all will have to reinvent their trade strategies