AI - Promises, all bright and shiny
Amidst the brouhaha and the excitement, the AI supply chain offers insights about dependencies between the links, about drivers of unabated optimism, and about business models, both solid and flimsy ones
Pininvest Analysis
China and the West - The Actuators Gap
Gaps are not where you look - in rare earhs, they are real in the processing and the refining, not in the mining. In actuators, there is no real gap in the technology but an abysmal gap in volume supply at low price for fast growing novel industries
Portfolio construction - Old School Rules
It is easy to overthink a portfolio construction because of the massive data you can access - By selecting filters, the investor will be clarifying true priorities (and test their relevance)
The Yuan also rises
Reflecting global reach, credibility of national governance and economic dominance, currency convertibility can be facilitated in practice but cannot be summoned by diktat; trust will be earned in the long haul
U.S. dollar - Indispensable and Challenged
Debt issuance in U.S. dollars is privilege but the reserve currency status is a straight jacket with flaws - Expectations run high, everyone wants a piece while American control gets harder, diluting responsability and credibility
China - a 21st Century Industrial Revolution
Self-sufficiency in the production of intermediate goods and machinery is powered by automation, generating a structural mismatch between growing exports of all types and weakened imports of advanced manufactured products
Building EVs with picks and shovels
Factory equipment manufacturers are on a roll as automakers rush the installation of EV (electrical vehicles) production lines
ASML and the semiconductor ecosystem
The year on year share price performance (topping 100%) is compelling but investors anticipate very strong earnings, going forward, to bring PE in line with the high flyers of the semiconductor supply chain
ASML the horse and the barn
The disruptive potential of AI-based technologies has raised American concern about China's 'military-civil fusion' strategy and the forceful geopolitical pressure by U.S. Administrations on foreign allies has been successful, up to a point...
Japan - Supply chains
Inspired by the Meiji Restoration, mutually supportive relationships anchored Japanese industrial firms on strong foundations, in Japan and globally, making partnerships on Western markets attractive and mutually beneficial
Japan - Financial Challenges
Japanese debt seems overwhelming, qualifying unhappily as sole defining factor of the country's outlook but commanding economic strengths, with deeply rooted supply chains, will shift investor perceptions over time
A Golden Age - Make the Dutch Provinces Great !
With victory in the Revolt against Spain in 1648, the challenge had evaporated and the Dutch Republic needed to find a fresh purpose in itself, above and beyond its outstanding economic success
A Golden Age - Holland's Power by the Numbers
The Seventeenth Century - or at least its first 75 years - was called 'Golden' in the Northern Netherlands not just as symbol of material abundance but by virtue of the social cohesion the small Republic achieved
Germany - Global Trade Storm
EU trade policies are credible when competing in unison on global markets, but ambivalent efforts by Germany (and others) to keep China on-side pin Europe down. Atrophy beckons...
Germany - Misplaced Trust
Germany is one of the strongest exporters worldwide and readily accessible energy sources are indispensable to the country's industrial success. A close partnership with Russian energy providers has turned into unwarranted dependence - Trust betrayed
America - Strolling through the XXth Century
In vintage photography, quiet statements of forbearance, and trust in equal opportunity, regrouping in times of crisis and communing in shared beliefs of belonging speak loud and clear
America - Tariffs and Voices of Common Sense
With the CEO of Detroit Axle, the American Dream finds a voice, a voice of experience and hard work, to speak out about tariff policies, impacting competitiveness and distorting markets, with costs borne ultimately by the U.S. economy