Nvidia - Chip Wars and Artificial Intelligence

Components Performance/Risk
Period Return
89.2%
Return Rank
Strong
Risk Exposure
High Risk

Great investor expectations of artificial intelligence (AI) have driven the share price of Nvidia to breathtaking heights

AI's bright and shiny future may come true, and certainly has been marketed as a once-in-a-life time technological turning point

For now, Nvidia alone owns the market for AI applications on devices with multiples functionalities 

However, integration of specialized NPUs and cloud-based models (already available on Google, Amazon and Microsoft clouds) will prove to be game-changers in a not-so-distant future

Rather than attempting to join the Nvidia bandwagon, especially after the train left the station, this selection suggests a considered view of the semiconductor industry

 

Nvidia - in the uncertainty surrounding the extent of AI's grip on entire industries - remains a sphinx, inscrutable about what the future truly beholds

Comparisons between financial ratios , on the Analytics tab, may provide some of the answers sought by investors

The ratios draw stark comparisons across the semiconductor firms listed on US markets, by share price to earnings (P/E), to book value (P/B), to cash flow (P/CF) and many others, with striking differences in investor appreciation

  • Firms operating in the same segment of 'fabless IC design' as Nvidia master specialized AI programming capacity to accelerate machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) workloads. Unsurprisingly, integration of multiple AI chips in neural processing units (NPUs) will proceed apace and vendors include
    • Intel  
      Qualcomm  
    • Advanced Micro Devices  
      Huawei (China)
      Samsung (South Korea)
      MediaTek (Taiwan)
  •  A selected group of powerful firms enjoys real-life quasi-monopoly positions with much lower valuation ratios than Nvidia - such as foundry TSMC or dominant lithography specialist ASML 

 

  • Nvidia will be challenged by cloud-based AI services, with familiar names. With potent hardware accelerators, their neural units (NPUs) are optimized for tasks related to artificial networks and tensor units (TPU's) are developed by Google to accelerate the training and inference of deep learning models
    • Amazon  
    • Microsoft Azure  
    • Google  
    • Meta  

 

Vanguard Information Technology ETF  is the benchmark of the selection

Theme Components
Name
Ticker
Sector
Industry
Cur. Price
Mkt. Cap
Performance
Momentum
Risk Rank
Risk Contrib
 
Applied Materials AMAT TechnologySemiconductors – Lithography539.14428 B186.8% Neutral High Risk
ASML Holding (ADR) ASML TechnologySemiconductors – Lithography1,740.99674 B132.8% Neutral Above Average
Lam Research Corporation LRCX TechnologySemiconductors – Lithography311.35389 B194.1% Sharp Down High Risk
Broadcom AVGO TechnologyDatacom, Telcom & Network Equipt427.762,028 B39.8% Weak Up Above Average
Coherent COHR TechnologyOptics & Photonics379.1371 B232.5% Weak Up High Risk
Novanta NOVT TechnologyOptics & Photonics166.375.9 B33.2% Weak Up Above Average
IPG Photonics IPGP TechnologyOptics & Photonics90.233.8 B12.3% Sharp Down High Risk
Intel INTC TechnologySemiconductors - Broad Line101.65508 B357.5% Neutral High Risk
Texas Instruments TXN TechnologySemiconductors - Broad Line286.08260 B54.0% Neutral Above Average
KLA-Tencor KLAC TechnologySemiconductors – Metrology & TestEquipt198.1126 B118.5% Weak Down High Risk
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