Nirvana is a transcendent state in the Buddhist religion, in which there is neither suffering, desire, nor sense of self.... representing the final goal of Buddhism
To address global warming, Europe's commitments leave the impression that such a 'transcendent' state is within reach
If only...
As a rule-setter, prodded by broad support in the European Parliament, the Commission has implemented ambitious plans and the focus has been on CO₂ transportation emission for a reason...
Since 1990, gas emission by the EU transportation segment - about one third of total EU emissions - has increased by 33% or 185 Mt (million tons)
The other segments (industry and buildings) - which represent about two thirds of total emissions - have decreased by 32% and this favorable outcome is at risk of being blunted if the trend on surging transportation emissions is not reversed
To stay within the guideline of the 1°5 target set by the Paris Climate Agreement, currently adopted policies target a 24% reduction in total EU emissions from 2020 by 2030 as a base line, a 912 Mt total yearly emission cut-back
European ambition concentrates attention on a reversal in the 30-year growth trend of transportation emissions, putting passenger vehicles sales on a fast track to 100% zero-emission
While bolstering Europe's ambition in leading environmental protection, the thing is...
Climate change is a global phenomenon sitting uncomfortably with regional - even continent-size - strategies...
At great industrial cost, Europe may succeed in rolling back emissions by 912 Mt a year ...
However, assisting developing countries such as India in controlling their transport emission might unlock similar - and even higher - global emission savings with much smaller financial subsidies, lower costs to European industry and modest expense to the car-driving consumer
India, with a population similar to China's, is well on the way to triple its transport emissions, and align with China's current CO₂ output (which doubled over the last 10 years) - a probable increase in gas emissions of 600 Mt per year....
Just a thought...
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global greenhouse gas emissions are caused by three main sectors, after allocation of electricity and heat emissions to the end users, ranking (as of 2019)
- Industry – 39%
- Buildings – 28%
- Transportation – 27%
- Other – 6%
Breaking those 27% transportation emissions down by segment (IEA 2018 data – rounded numbers)
- Road (passenger transport) – 45%
- Road (freight by truck) – 29%
- Aviation – 12%
- Shipping – 11%
As critical factor of pollution, combustion engines (passenger transport) are responsible of close to half the global transportation emissions, and represent 12% to 14% of the grand total of worldwide CO₂ emissions
This is not meant to downplay passenger transportation as a critical factor of CO₂ emissions, especially in large cities and in the most populous regions of the continent
However, as highlighted by the World Resources Institute (WRI), not all cities (of more than 1 million people) are equally suited for electrification
Two criteria stand out – urban access to electricity and carbon intensity of electricity supply
Because of a lack of access and a dirty grid, electrification is in fact detrimental today in sub-Saharan Africa (electrification would contribute in only 3 cities) and in most of South and East Asia (only 26 out of 202 cities are good candidates)
The implication is dire
As Asian populations become more affluent, demand for passenger transportation will grow exponentially, following China's booming automotive course
With population tallies exceeding 2 billion in total, Asia could well become the next frontier of the automotive market for combustion engines - as lagging electrification makes little sense in the short to medium term...
Pointedly, the total transport emissions are expected to grow at a faster rate than emissions from the other sectors
While global emission needs to go down, overall volume of travel are on the rise, on the strength of higher living standards in developing countries and of expectations in aging (Western) societies
2019 WRI data have been a roll call of CO₂ transport emissions (in million tons - Mt) by the world’s largest or most populous or most environmentally damaging economies
- U.S. 1 762 Mt CO₂ emissions
- China 917 Mt
- EU 800 Mt
- Russia 258 Mt
- India 291 Mt
- Brazil 192 Mt
- Japan 204 Mt
- Canada 176 Mt
With approx. 17% of greenhouse emission related to transport of these key economies, the European Union is the third heaviest contributor globally
However, when adjusted for population, transport CO₂ emissions (in million tons) look very different
| Pop. (millions) | Emissions (Mt) | tons/person | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | 330 | 1762 | 5,34 |
| Canada | 38 | 176 | 4,63 |
| EU (1) | 448 | 800 | 1,79 |
| Russia | 144 | 258 | 1,79 |
| Japan | 125 | 204 | 1.63 |
| Brazil | 212 | 192 | 0.91 |
| China | 1400 | 917 | 0,66 |
| India | 1400 | 305 | 0,22 |
| (1) European Union + UK | |||
| Transport CO₂ emission - World Resources '19 | |||
The U.S. and Canada are conspicuous outliers - at triple the emissions of Western Europeans - and growing at approx. 1.5% per year (2016/2018)
The EU and Japan could be seen in a pivot range but only Japan actually reduced its emissions by more than 1% per year (2016/2018)
The BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have all grown their yearly CO₂ emissions between 4% a year (China) and 2.4% (India) with the exception of Brazil which reduced slightly its output
China's poor results - increasing CO₂ emissions tonnage by 74 million tons in two year (2016/2018) - are striking because the country had implemented strong incentives favoring EVs as early as 2016.
As EVs boost market share, the New Energy Vehicle policy (NEV) may gain traction... if (only if) emissions by the electricity grid are kept in check...
If China manages to restrain and adjust consumer transportation demand with stringent regulations, other populous Asian countries may not prove as capable....
Indonesia (population 273 million) is a case in point - with emissions of 154 Mt (2019 data) - growing more than 7% per year - a trend indicative of future emission growth in the Philippines (pop. 110 million) or Malaysia (pop. 32 million) and of Pakistan's (pop. 220 million) or India's immense global impact
The implications are undeniable
Responsible EU governance may need to call for a global environmental policy, preventing exponential CO₂ emissions before they occur in developing countries while monitoring cautious industrial transitions in its own backyard
Public awareness of the global challenge could be reframed by cost-benefit analysis of the options
As we will discuss shortly in "Europe Car Industry- A one-way ticket to oblivion", true human and financial impact on European economies of the emission constraints promulgated by European authorities may put this alternative front and center in the social debate