{"list":[{"id":4029782,"hash":"rlz6z68n","type":"List","name":"Long Treasuries - Inverse","alias":"long-treasuries-inverse","intro":"HIgh long-maturity bond yields signal uncertainty but massive U.S. Treasury futures short positions may not portend rising yields either","description":"

Leveraged Inverse U.S. Government Bond ETFs are suggested for tracking purposes since January 2024

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Counterintuitively, the yield on the longest maturities (10-Y and 20-Y) has been going up (lowering the value of the bonds and supporting inverse ETF strategies) even though the Fed rate on short maturities has been falling

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For bond investors, uncertainty can be channeled to resurgent inflation, out-of-control Federal deficits, hesitant foreign buyers of U.S. Treasuries

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In the run-up to mid-term elections in November, US economic policy will most probably drive inflationary growth and deficits, with foreign buyers holding up for now (while booking heavy losses on the dollar exchange)

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With a very large U.S. Treasury futures short position (close to 2 million contracts) and total ETF short interest in U.S. Treasuries of $12.4 billion, the risk of a short squeeze could be driven by strong U.S. Treasuries demand at current high yields (4.85% on 30-year bonds)

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Undoubtedly supported by the U.S.Treasury Department…

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Interesting times

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To index 'uncertainty', a Gold ETF has been included in the selection

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By checking trends over different time frames from the menu at the top right, short term momentum can be tracked effectively

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