The Yuan also rises
Reflecting global reach, credibility of national governance and economic dominance, currency convertibility can be facilitated in practice but cannot be summoned by diktat; trust will be earned in the long haul
Long Treasuries - Inverse
U.S. dollar - Indispensable and Challenged
Debt issuance in U.S. dollars is privilege but the reserve currency status is a straight jacket with flaws - Expectations run high, everyone wants a piece while American control gets harder, diluting responsability and credibility
Yuan - On the road to convertibility
To be - or not to be - convertible, the question has been answered positively by President Xi and the announcement caps a decade of foundational transformations in settlement infrastructure
Japan - Central Banks and the yen carry-trade
The Japanese Central Bank intends to strengthen the yen's currency rate gradually - a sensible monetary policy remains a gamble but support of the Central Banks worldwide could stack the deck - "no more bets" allowed, says the croupier
The U.S. Dollar and Central Bank Independence
Under public debt loads in leading economies, Central Bank policies of price stability overshadow fiscal balance with the burden of interest payment expenditures - at 25% of U.S. budget - a 'Battle Royale' which cannot end well
Japan - Indispensable Yen
Japan's Dec. 19 interest rate increase to its highest level in 30 years is a sea-change; tapering of cheap liquidity in yen funding global finance could be brutal or gradual but it remains a major event either way
Yuan and the Geopolitics of Trade
International trade, supported by Chinese banking (by way of cross-border loans and debt securities), acts like a flywheel supporting the yuan's adoption in global transactions, in direct competition with the dollar
Yuan - Taking the long view
Fragmentation of national payment systems is ambiguous, operating 'under cover' with far-reaching consequences for international trade and global debt
U.S. interest expense on debt
Federal debt could - in theory - be carried forward forever if credit holds...but interest expense is a bill coming due in a continuous stream all year around, and this bill has been rising
The U.S. Dollar - Rendez-vous with economic growth ?
With distinct mandates, three parties weighing on the U.S. dollar exchange rate, the U.S. Administration, the Fed and foreign bond holders, are reluctant fellow travelers to reach the high grounds of economic growth in an uncomfortable equilibrium