Germany - Global Trade Storm
EU trade policies are credible when competing in unison on global markets, but ambivalent efforts by Germany (and others) to keep China on-side pin Europe down. Atrophy beckons...
China
New NATO - Who holds the cards ?
European national interests are exposed to unstable arbitrage, and options are volatile - The best of times to boldly stamp NATO's expectations held for the future
The future of AI – some clarity and many questions
Supersized investments and the race in AI research between the global powers, the U.S. and China, set the stage for an intellectual revolution - but today it is all about AI agent 'evolution'
ASML and the semiconductor ecosystem
The year on year share price performance (topping 100%) is compelling but investors anticipate very strong earnings, going forward, to bring PE in line with the high flyers of the semiconductor supply chain
ASML the horse and the barn
The disruptive potential of AI-based technologies has raised American concern about China's 'military-civil fusion' strategy and the forceful geopolitical pressure by U.S. Administrations on foreign allies has been successful, up to a point...
China's Car Industry - Europe's Nemesis ?
The global automotive industry is being challenged by China's tech-driven cars and U.S. tariff wars, supply chains which powered entire economic regions look stolid, and Europe's famed brands are losing their glitter fast
Europe Automotive - Treading Water
A focus on the COâ‚‚ emissions of individual transportation in Europe makes light of social impact on the industrial supply chain, putting at risk the market shares of established car makers and depriving the industry of its strengths in motorization
Globalization, China and Trade Imbalance
The Chinese trade surplus in manufacturing goods is, at $2 trillion, unfathomably large....and growing fast....a death knell of globalization as we knew it, which might finally stir the international order into action ...
Tariffs - the U.S. and the World
Global trade has been upended by the Trump tariff policies and there is no turning back. Each country's political standing will weigh on its economic outcome but all will have to reinvent their trade strategies
Electrical Vehicles - Price Wars coming....
Weighing on the cost of car batteries, lithium is a price-setter for electrical vehicles and if much cheaper alternatives prove viable, EVs will come to dominate the mid-range car market, much faster than expected...
EVs in Demand - a Whirlwind
Rising relentlessly, EV sales on China's domestic market will be butting heads in 2023 with European demand prodded by environmental concerns, energizing the global supply chain, a challenge and a lifetime opportunity for China's battery- and car-makers
Russia - Siberian Roulette
Originally published in March 2020, this updated note on Siberia's pivotal position in the Eurasian landmass has gained strong relevance in the race for natural resources amidst powerplays between Russia, China and Europe, as the war in Ukraine drags on